Thursday, September 27, 2007

what do buyers want in a home?

I took the NAR quiz on features that home buyers most treasure...whew, thank goodness I scored a 10!


You really know what buyers like. While every home buyer has different preferences, you know that buyers also can be a lot alike. Keep up the good work! By staying on top of national trends in buyer preferences, you’ll be able to better assist your customers during their house hunt — and when they say they want a bigger garage, you’ll hardly be surprised. To learn more, check out NAR’s 2007 Profile of Buyers’ Home Feature Preferences.

1. What single home feature do buyers say they want most in a new home?

Your Answer Is Correct: Central air conditioning

Staying cool is important to buyers in all regions of the country. Nearly three-quarters of home buyers ranked central air conditioning as “very important” for their new home, and 83 percent of buyers purchased a home with central air. Other highly desired home features: a garage for two or more cars (57 percent), a walk-in closet in the master bedroom (53 percent), and a backyard or play area (50 percent).

2. What’s the median size of homes purchased between late 2005 and early 2007?

Your Answer Is Correct: 1,840 square feet

Home sizes are growing. The size of the typical home purchased by survey respondents increased by 100 square feet since 2004, according to the survey results. Meanwhile, the median age of recently purchased homes decreased to 12 years from 15 in that same time span.

3. Repeat buyers tend to be choosier than first-time buyers. In particular, repeat buyers place much more emphasis on these home features:

Your Answer Is Correct: Oversized garages and master bedroom walk-in closets

Sixty-five percent of repeat buyers said they wanted a garage with two or more spaces, compared with 41 percent of first-time buyers; 61 percent said they wanted a walk-in closet in the master bedroom, compared with 38 percent of first time buyers. Although repeat buyers placed more importance than first time buyers on nearly all home features surveyed — with the exception of a backyard or play area, and proximity to work — big garages and walk-in closets are two features that repeat buyers were much more likely to seek in their new home.

4. Within three months after buying their new home, nearly half of all buyers remodeled or made improvements to which part of the house?

Your Answer Is Correct: Kitchen

Six in ten buyers took on remodeling or home improvement projects soon after buying a home, according to the survey, and the kitchen was most often involved. Nearly half (47 percent) of home buyers remodeled or made improvements to their kitchen within the first three months. Other common projects include remodeling bathrooms and bedrooms, and adding new appliances and lighting. Overall, the typical buyer spent $4,350 on home improvement projects within the first three months.

5. Which home feature saw the biggest jump in buyer popularity since 2004, when NAR conducted its previous buyer preference survey?

Your Answer Is Correct: Oversized garage

The most significant change between the 2007 survey and the previous 2004 survey was in the number of buyers who said oversized garages were important in their home purchase decisions. In that time frame, oversized garages (for two or more cars) gained 16 percentage points to 57 percent. What’s more, 56 percent of buyers who purchased a home without an oversized garage said they would have paid extra for one, while in the 2004 survey only 6 percent said they’d be willing to pay extra. Other features growing in popularity: hardwood floors, granite countertops, and cable readiness.

6. What three features did buyers say they’d be most willing to pay extra for in a home?

Your Answer Is Correct: Central air conditioning, walk-in closets, and hardwood floors

Buyers aren’t afraid to spend money on the features they really want, according to the survey. Sixty-five percent said they’d be willing to pay extra for central air conditioning — in fact, they’d pay a median of $1,880 extra for a home with it. Sixty percent said they’d pay extra (a median of $870) for walk-in closets, and 57 percent said they’d pay more (a median of $1,900) for hardwood floors. Buyers were willing to pay the most for a waterfront property, an extra $4,760.

7. A home’s energy efficiency is most important to which segment of buyers?

Your Answer Is Correct: New-home buyers

Of all buyers, nearly half reported a home's energy efficiency was "very important", but new-home buyers were particularly concerned. Sixty-five percent of buyers of homes one year old or newer said energy efficiency was "very important" in their home search. On the other hand, 32 percent of those who purchased homes 51 years or older said energy efficiency was "very important".

8. Where do first-time home buyers tend to purchase a home?

Your Answer Is Correct: Suburb or subdivision

Suburbs are still the most popular place to live, even for first-time buyers. Slightly more than half of this buyer segment purchased a home in a suburb or subdivision, compared with 20 percent who purchased a home in an urban or central city area, and 20 percent in a small town. Only 10 percent of first-time buyers bought a home in a rural area.

9. What’s the most common type of home purchased?

Your Answer Is Correct: Single level

Overall, 47 percent of buyers purchased a single-level home, while 44 percent of buyers purchased a two-level home. Nine percent of buyers bought a home with three or more levels. In general, the older the home buyers, the more likely they are to buy a one-level home.

10. What did new-home buyers most wish their home had more of?

Your Answer Is Correct: Storage

Can a home ever have enough storage? Nearly half of new-home buyers said more storage space would make their residence ideal. Among all buyers — of homes both old and new — 40 percent would have preferred more closets and nearly 60 percent wish for a larger kitchen. Regardless, more than 90 percent of home buyers said they are satisfied with the home they purchased.

Friday, September 21, 2007

Randy Pausch has something to say...

If you haven't taken the time to see this lecture, do it this weekend. I saw excerpts on GMA this morning and I was really engaged in this man's journey and courage. Here is a summary:

"Randy Pausch is a pioneer in virtual reality, a computer science professor, a Disney Imagineer, an innovative teacher, and the co-founder of the best video game school in the world. One year ago he was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, and after a long and difficult fight he's been given just a few more months to live. This week he gave his powerful, funny, and life-affirming last lecture to a packed auditorium at Carnegie Mellon University, entitled "How to Live Your Childhood Dreams". The WSJ's summary, and a direct link to the complete video of the lecture (2 hours, and unfortunately streaming WMV). Warning: hilarious jokes about dying."

If you do a search on youtube for "Pausch", you'll find some clips too.

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

foreclosure information??????

Okay, so here is an except of a report that I read over coffee this morning (yes, I realize that I am boring...informed, but boring):

"Nevada, California, Florida post top state foreclosure rates

Nevada continued to register the nation’s highest state foreclosure
rate, one foreclosure filing for every 165 households - more than three times
the national average. The state reported 6,197 foreclosure filings during the
month, a 21% increase from the previous month and more than triple the
number reported in August 2006.

California’s foreclosure rate jumped to second highest among the states
thanks to a 48% month-over-month spike in foreclosure activity. The state
reported 57,875 foreclosure filings during the month, a foreclosure rate of one
foreclosure filing for every 224 households - more than twice the national
average.

Florida foreclosure activity jumped 77% from the previous month,
boosting the state’s foreclosure rate from seventh highest to third highest
among the states. The state reported 33,932 foreclosure filings, a foreclosure
rate of one foreclosure filing for every 243 households.
Other states with foreclosure rates ranking among the nation’s 10 highest were Georgia, Ohio, Michigan, Arizona, Colorado, Texas and Indiana.

Seven of the top 10 states in terms of total foreclosure filings in
August were located in the Sun Belt, and three of the top 10 states were in the
Rust Belt. After California and Florida, Ohio registered the third highest state
total, with 17,793 foreclosure filings during the month. The state documented a
foreclosure rate of one foreclosure filing for every 281 households, fifth
highest in the nation."

Still with me? Drink some more coffee! Lets guess who published this data? Yes, that's right...a company who specializes in selling foreclosure information to lenders, banks, real estate agents, etc... Obviously, their "twist & turn" on the data is that there is doom & gloom on the horizon (after all, the Halloween season is approaching) and we have the data to help you make money...just pay us some money.

The national average for foreclosures filed (not finalized through the courts but just filed because you have not been paying your loan timely) is approximately 1 in 400 homes. Seems like a relatively small percentage to me. I would guess that the expected loan loss on mortgage loans would be pretty low relative to the bank's assets, earnings, other credit portfolios, etc...

If a home goes into foreclosure, many banks take the home into inventory and attempt to sell the home on the open market. Unless the loan was 100% loan to value, the bank should be able to re-coop much of its loan value...not all, but not a complete loss either.

When a bank has a loss from a credit card portfolio, do you believe that they are coming for the Walmart stuff you bought a month ago? The bank will take the used Dodge Caravan that has depreciated 50% in two years but think of that loan to value differential. How about a boat loan (yes, that hole in the water that you pour money in)? Even worse.

So where are the problems? Lets begin with re-evaluating 100% loan to value lending. There are times when it is appropriate, but not as many occasions as it has been used to fund home purchases. I wonder how many loans that included a 20% down payment have defaulted?

Lets limit the rhetoric in the media...the media loves these "top ten" reports. But when the data is coming from the business that is promoting foreclosure services, what data do you think we will hear? While I am at it, lets also limit the real estate folks from saying that the housing market is robust while in "reality", the real estate market is relatively flat from a value perspective and declining from a # of units sold perspective.

Your home should be your primary investment and the one asset that you need to keep maintained at good marketability standards. Rip up the credit cards (you'll be surprised how good that feels!), drop the car payments (used Toyota's and Honda's run a very long time), and get financially healthy. There will be less to fret over and you can ignore the "doom & gloomers"!


Wednesday, September 12, 2007


News from Craig Alleva at Ivy League Mortgage!!
Just click on the image to enlarge...unless you have really good eyesight!
Tom.......




Monday, September 10, 2007

"STATISTICS," Thomas Carlyle, the Scottish writer and philosopher remarked, "are the greatest liars of them all." Carlyle was writing in the first half of the 19Th century, but his words carry weight for today's real estate market.

I will not bore anyone with the differences in statistical terms (sorry Dr. Kersnick!), but there is a great amount of misreported data in the media. Here is a piece I read this morning:

"Home Prices Weakest in Decade--Global Insight, a company for economic and financial analysis and forecasting, released the 2007 second-quarter update of House Prices in America, the U.S. housing-valuation analysis, which shows the incidence of overvaluation in the nation’s housing market continues to decline, the result of falling home prices. Nationally, home prices are up year-over-year just 2.6%, the weakest gain since 1995."

Wait a minute! Prices are weakest in decade yet the prices are up 2.6% year over year? Given the steeper increases during 2004-5, isn't the increase fairly reasonable? Of course, real estate prices are impacted on a regional basis so lets take a quick look at the recent southern NJ market stats (from the South Jersey MLS).

Comparing the first two quarters of 2007 vs. 2006, the number of units sold declined 18.6% but average (oh no, a statistical variable) home prices INCREASED 5.8% driven by 5+ bedroom homes which are up 19.6%! Days on market increased 23.8% consistent with units sold (86 days for three bedroom homes).

What conclusions can we draw from this data? I am not sure...that's correct, I am not sure because statistics are so misleading. But I wander a bit since this is my blog and offer a guess-estimate.

The flattening of the home prices may be caused by the interest rate environment (although higher than previous years, it is still reasonable given the historical perspective) and it's impact on affordability. I doubt we are experiencing the same number of homeowners upgrading their homes since the monthly mortgage payment is not flat when upgrading.

I have informed my clients (sellers & buyers) that the local market is stable...not robust but not as flat as many in the media have reported. Since there are many over-priced homes offered, you need to pick through the piles of data to unearth the fairly priced homes. I expect that the sold home prices will continue on a fairly flat curve/line, but we may see the listing prices come closer to where homes are actually selling.

I am sure someone will massage a stat or two that "proves" that I am a liar!